As usual, the politics is Ecuador is pretty robust. The first election shows a complete changing of the guard. The conservatives that currently hold power were blown out of the election. The two main candidates to come out of the field of thirteen hopefuls are as opposite as possible.
Of course, one will win. But I expect either way Ecuador will lose.
Dale Correa is a Socialist/Leftist and economist. Curiously, while he is an economist by trade and educated in the United States, he is caustically anti-Bush, anti-American Imperialism and a solid admirer of Cuba and Venezuela. He advocates defaulting on the massive Ecuador debt, nationalizing much of the petroleum industry, and using the money on massive spending programs.
He was the Finance Minister of the current Palacio Administration (one of five in 18 months). He was fired from his job after the International Monetary Fund turned down a loan to Ecuador, which cited Ecuador’s overwhelming current debt and inability to control spending. Correa went into a much publicized tirade against the IMF.
Correa says that Ecuador should pay “no more than 3% for its bonds,” while it is currently paying about 12.5%. Of course the reason Ecuador pays so much interest is that Ecuador defaulted on its bonds in 1999 and has shown nothing to control the populist spending of its populations. Correa the economist must know this. But Correa the politician won’t hear of it.
When Correa came in a disappointing second in the initial election he charged vote fraud and demanded an investigation. When the official counts confirmed the original count, and the observers from the Organization of American Nations sanctioned the count as accurate, Correa went into a wild frenzy and demanded the OAN replace the senior official of the observation group for being part of the fraud.
To a Western outsider, Correa comes off as an erratic little kid playing grownup games.
On the other side is Alfredo Noboa, the richest man in Ecuador, having earned billions in the banana business. He has been stumping Ecuador with a Bible under his arm, giving out bicycles and wheelchairs, and pledging his personal fortune to help the struggling poor of Ecuador. It is a populist assault of making promises of better programs and economy and lives to all.
In reality, Noboa is part of the corrupt elite of the country. They are most interested in keeping the people happy, while in the meantime making sure that the laws, banks, police, courts and political institutions stay firmly in their hands. Theirs is a world where too much bureaucracy and Byzantian laws keep the lower classes where they are, while those of the right money, family or connections can operate without hindrance.
So, in reality, Ecuador has a choice between doing it the old way under a rich and corrupt man, or going with a young radical who’s politics has no grounding in reality.
Which is sad, because Ecuador has serious problems, economic and domestic. Staying the way it has, under Noboa, will mean a continued slide into economic chaos. Going with the unrealistic and erratic Correa will mean an astonishing destruction of the few parts of the economy still keeping Ecuador afloat.
